Let's Simplifly: Good News

[Trathena]

Re: Let's Simplifly: Good News

I love how people say you can ignore the policies of Biden since he's only the VP candidate, but when it comes to Palin, suddenly the VP does matter.

So true!

Still, he's gonna eat her alive. And I'm going to enjoy watching it.

[Ars Sycro]

Re: Let's Simplifly: Good News

The problem is that Palin is not going to hurt McCain. The people that hate her choice are not voting for McCain regardless. And the people that are voting McCain love the choice. It all comes down to the independents who are going to be too busy measuring Barack and McCain to worry about Biden and Palin.

[Trathena]

Re: Let's Simplifly: Good News

The problem is that Palin is not going to hurt McCain. The people that hate her choice are not voting for McCain regardless. And the people that are voting McCain love the choice. It all comes down to the independents who are going to be too busy measuring Barack and McCain to worry about Biden and Palin.

Yep. From what I'm reading, you're right.

The typical Republican voter for the past 20 years has been either smart people who are criminally greedy or dumb hicks who are criminally vicious and full of hate or fear. Or 18-20 year olds voting how their parents do.

Palin will appeal to the second group on principle. And the smart, greedy republicans who don't like her at all, can't help but admit that she will bring back this lower class within the Party who wasn't going to vote for Lieberman, Romney, or Huckabee. So they'll play along.

I am completely wasted, so I hope this makes sense and isn't too far out there.

[TheRuleofThree]

Re: Let's Simplifly: Good News

The problem is that Palin is not going to hurt McCain. The people that hate her choice are not voting for McCain regardless. And the people that are voting McCain love the choice. It all comes down to the independents who are going to be too busy measuring Barack and McCain to worry about Biden and Palin.

But that's the point. Palin isn't going to help him make any significant inroads to the people who haven't decided or disagree with him on some issues. She simply electrifies the hard right base, who would have all eventually voted McCain anyway if only to vote against Obama. McCain had the opportunity to pick someone that would have shifted some independents to his corner, and all he did was consolidate the base he has - a base that simply isn't enough.

Obama's campaign articulated the other day that they're only going to focus on talking about McCain, figuring the press will go through their celebrity analysis of Palin for the next few weeks. The VP debate will be enough to make the point for them. I agree with you Josh that most people only care about Obama and McCain, and I think you're going to see that reflected in the strategy moving forward.

TheRuleofThree added 716 Minutes and 31 Seconds later...

Proof: I stumbled on this, and while this isn't complete and doesn't show all the trends I'm referring to it pretty much sums up why I think this will be harder for McCain than the corporate media wants you to know.

http://edgeofthewest.wordpress.com/2008/09/05/change-in-voter-registration/

[Trathena]

Re: Let's Simplifly: Good News

Damn! Look at California and Florida! I'm happy!

[Ars Sycro]

Re: Let's Simplifly: Good News

I agree that it may show a trend, but these numbers actually say very little. If a state had 100K more Republicans before the period began and 50K more new Democrats registered, the Republicans are still up 50K.

[Trathena]

Re: Let's Simplifly: Good News

^ wet blanket.

[TheRuleofThree]

Re: Let's Simplifly: Good News

Haha. Okay, Josh.

[Ars Sycro]

Re: Let's Simplifly: Good News

So you disagree, but how? Trends show part of a picture, but not the full one. That's all I am trying to point out.

[TheRuleofThree]

Re: Let's Simplifly: Good News

I disagree because this is literally a slice of the picture. There is a lot more to notice... how about Dennis Hastert's seat in Illinois going to a Democrat for the first time in over 20 years? How about the seat in Louisiana? These are just some of the states that Bush won by over 20 points that are now either tied or within the margin of error for both candidates- Indiana. South Dakota. North Dakota. Montana. North Carolina, a state that Bush won by 12% is either tied or in Obama's pocket in almost every poll. Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada were all formerly "red" as well and are now tossups. Add to that the increase in voter registration for Democrats, the switching of Republicans to Independents, and the fact that McCain picked a VP that only solidifies the people already in his favor, and I think it's fair to make the argument that Obama should handily win unless McCain a) gets his shit together real quick and makes actual statistical improvements in almost 12 states or b) Obama or Biden kill, rape, assault, or maim someone or say something stupid that changes the entire character of the election.

That is part of the full picture I'm referring to. The other side of it is money, which is unfortunately coming to Democrats as well but isn't fully supporting McCain like it has supported the GOP in the past, making gains even harder.

Now, does any of this sound far fetched or irrelevant? The only thing that matters is electoral strategy. That is all. When you stare at these maps all day and you see the numbers, the make up of the country is entirely different than it was four years ago. I don't even want to waste my time getting the voting numbers from the Republican and Democratic primaries... I think it's pretty obvious that we're seeing more than just trends.

TheRuleofThree added 57 Minutes and 21 Seconds later...

Another article on the same subject: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/0..._n_124470.html

Money quote:

Since the last federal election in 2006, volunteers like Graham combined with the enthusiasm generated by the Obama-Clinton struggle to add more than 2 million Democrats to voter rolls in the 28 states that register voters according to party affiliation. The Republicans have lost nearly 344,000 thousand voters in the same states.

Are you saying that this doesn't make a difference in McCain making up the difference in the electoral count?

[BuddyGoodness]

Re: Let's Simplifly: Good News

yeah but republicans have proven adept at swaying the moron voters, those who don't pay attention at all to politics and just vote for the one who is the loudest and most belligerent

BuddyGoodness added 0 Minutes and 51 Seconds later...

plus there is always diebold, or whatever their names are now.

BuddyGoodness added 1 Minutes and 4 Seconds later...

oh and the RNC is hauling in a shit load of money and since Obama is going to use money to try and help other dems get elected while rnc is just gonna funnel their cash to McCain I believe the money gap is pretty much closed.

[Gnomad]

Re: Let's Simplifly: Good News

There is but one truth... we will have a new President soon... and they're going to fuck it up whomever they are.

[And we'll just put a happy little bush over here.]

Re: Let's Simplifly: Good News

There is but one truth... we will have a new President soon... and they're going to fuck it up whomever they are.

word.

[BuddyGoodness]

Re: Let's Simplifly: Good News

very true, they will fuck shit up with a quickness.

BuddyGoodness added 1 Minutes and 43 Seconds later...

plain and simple though, if you want Obama to win keep thinking the election is too close to call, if you want mccain to win keep thinking obama is gonna win by a landslide. Both attitudes will force you to work for the person you want to be elected. You can't delude yourself like that if you are voting for a third party.

[TheRuleofThree]

Re: Let's Simplifly: Good News

I'm not saying we're going to put it on cruise control. I'm saying that the numbers are in our favor, and this is more than winnable for us. 2004 was an uphill battle. This is an even playing field, and we have a civil rights lawyer as our nominee. All I'm saying is that with hard work and a consistent message, we have a more than solid chance.